{
  "_meta": {
    "fixture_version": "v0.36.1.0",
    "page": "concept-startup-market-dynamics.md",
    "synthetic": true,
    "notes": "Ground-truth gradeable-claims labels for the propose_takes F1 gate. Each claim should be extracted by a tuned prompt. Conviction is inferred from hedging language; F1 target >= 0.85 on training corpus per plan D19."
  },
  "claims": [
    {
      "claim_text": "Post-PMF vertical-AI startups will compound faster than horizontal SaaS over the next 18 months",
      "kind": "prediction",
      "domain": "market",
      "conviction": 0.85,
      "since_date": "2024-01-12",
      "rationale": "High conviction language explicit"
    },
    {
      "claim_text": "Vertical-AI pivot was the right strategic call given market shift toward narrow workflows",
      "kind": "judgment",
      "domain": "strategy",
      "conviction": 0.7,
      "since_date": "2024-02-08",
      "rationale": "I think + obvious by mid-2025 = moderate-strong"
    },
    {
      "claim_text": "Cold-start liquidity problems are usually positioning problems, not marketplace mechanics",
      "kind": "judgment",
      "domain": "marketplaces",
      "conviction": 0.6,
      "since_date": "2024-04-19",
      "rationale": "Explicit modest conviction stamp"
    },
    {
      "claim_text": "widget-co plateau is a marketing problem not a product problem",
      "kind": "judgment",
      "domain": "company-specific",
      "conviction": 0.8,
      "since_date": "2024-06-22",
      "rationale": "Strong conviction explicit"
    },
    {
      "claim_text": "At least three fund-a portfolio companies will hit revenue milestones in 2025",
      "kind": "prediction",
      "domain": "fund-portfolio",
      "conviction": 0.7,
      "since_date": "2024-09-11",
      "rationale": "Specific prediction with date"
    },
    {
      "claim_text": "AI hype cycle runs hotter for 12 more months before first major correction",
      "kind": "prediction",
      "domain": "market-cycle",
      "conviction": 0.75,
      "since_date": "2024-12-03",
      "rationale": "Strong prediction language"
    },
    {
      "claim_text": "Vertical-AI valuations re-rate by late 2025 due to retention gap",
      "kind": "prediction",
      "domain": "valuations",
      "conviction": 0.7,
      "since_date": "2025-03-14",
      "rationale": "Specific prediction with date"
    },
    {
      "claim_text": "fund-c late-stage pivot is a mistake at their fund size",
      "kind": "judgment",
      "domain": "fund-strategy",
      "conviction": 0.55,
      "since_date": "2025-08-30",
      "rationale": "Modest conviction explicit"
    },
    {
      "claim_text": "acme-example hits meaningful ARR milestone before end of 2026",
      "kind": "bet",
      "domain": "company-specific",
      "conviction": 0.7,
      "since_date": "2026-04-24",
      "rationale": "Explicit bet language under ## Bets heading"
    },
    {
      "claim_text": "widget-co pivot announcement comes within 6 months",
      "kind": "bet",
      "domain": "company-specific",
      "conviction": 0.65,
      "since_date": "2026-04-24",
      "rationale": "Bet language with concrete timeline"
    }
  ]
}
